A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
